"Israel"... The Deepest Strategic Threat to Jordan
Amidst all the wars, upheavals, and ever-renewed threats buffeting the region, Jordan alone bears an exceptional weight that no other country in the region faces to the same degree - a weight called Israel.
Not as an ordinary geographical neighbour, but as an expansionist colonial project that has never ceased, for decades, to grow at the expense of Palestinian land and people, and, first and foremost, at the expense of Jordan's strategic security.
Jordan does not neighbour Israel as France neighbours Spain or Turkey neighbours Greece. The shared border between the two countries is not a neutral geographical line; it is a line of contact with a project that has never concealed its ambitions to expand.
What further complicates the equation is that Jordan hosts on its soil some three million Palestinian refugees registered with UNRWA, in addition to others who hold Jordanian nationality but whose roots run deep in the Palestinian land from which they were forcibly expelled.
This organic entanglement between Jordan and the Palestinian cause means that any shift in the Palestinian landscape has a direct bearing on Jordan's demographic, political, and economic fabric.
Since the occupation of the West Bank in 1967, Israel has never paused its settlement construction for a single moment - not even during the most intense phases of negotiation.
The figures do not lie: what were once dozens of settlements have today become a network of cities and bypass roads that tear apart the Palestinian body and render the establishment of a geographically contiguous Palestinian state something approaching the impossible with each passing day.
This expansion does not merely signify the theft of land; it signifies the destruction of the two-state solution - the very idea upon which Jordan has long staked its hopes as the sole guarantee of its demographic and political stability.
Many Israeli officials - Netanyahu foremost among them - no longer conceal what was previously whispered behind closed doors: the project of mass displacement, first from Gaza, and then perhaps from the West Bank, towards Egypt and Jordan. This is neither conjecture nor an exaggerated scenario; it is a project articulated openly by voices within the far-right Israeli government.
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan rejects it categorically at the highest levels, for to accept it would be an act of explicit national suicide - a liquidation of the Palestinian cause at Jordan's expense, transforming it into an alternative homeland.
What was once considered the religious dream of a fringe extremist minority has today become a policy edging towards implementation.
Talk of "the complete Land of Israel" from the river to the sea is no longer confined to settler movements; it now echoes through the corridors of the Knesset and from the lips of serving ministers.
The transformations under way in Gaza and the West Bank - formal and informal annexation, displacement, demographic emptying - state plainly that this project is advancing, and we cannot afford the luxury of looking away.
Some might argue that Jordan is today preoccupied with the threats of Iranian missiles and drones and the militias - and that is true (according to announcements by the Jordanian Armed Forces, Iran has targeted Jordan with approximately 300 missiles and drones since the war began) - yet the Iranian threat is a situational one, bound to a volatile regional context and a project diminished by strikes against the axis of resistance. The Israeli threat, by contrast, is structural, radical, and deeply rooted in a project that does not stop.
Jordan, which holds the Hashemite custodianship over the holy sites in Jerusalem, understands that any change to the status of the holy city is a blow to the historical legitimacy of the Kingdom, and that any mass displacement of Palestinians eastward is a direct threat to the cohesion of the Jordanian state.
This reading does not advocate recklessness or being drawn into wars beyond our capacity. Rather, it means that Jordan must raise its voice louder and build its regional and international alliances on the basis of these constants - rejecting Israel's expansionist colonial policies and its displacement projects, which represent the greatest and deepest threat to Jordan, not to Palestine alone.
Any forthcoming settlement that does not rest upon ending the occupation, establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital - as King Abdullah II has consistently demanded - will remain a fragile settlement, one that cannot hold. The embers will remain beneath the ashes, waiting to ignite once more.
Jordan is a resilient state that has weathered profound crises, but resilience alone is insufficient when confronted with a project that operates with patience and a strategy extending across decades.
The greatest challenge lies not in the skies above Amman, but in the occupation's policies in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem.













































