As military escalation accelerates in the region and tensions rise between Israel, the United States, and Iran, attention has turned to matters directly affecting citizens’ daily lives, particularly food and energy.

Despite official reassurances of a comfortable strategic reserve of essential goods, indirect repercussions are beginning to cast a shadow over local markets. Concerns include potential supply chain disruptions and rising global shipping costs, which are gradually affecting domestic price structures.

Food security expert Dr. Fadel Al-Zoubi emphasized that Jordan enjoys a high level of quantitative food security. Wheat and barley reserves cover the Kingdom’s needs for nine to ten months, while other essential commodities suffice for more than four months. This stability is further reinforced by the domestic agricultural sector, which supplies approximately 60% of the food basket by weight, complemented by food processing industries meeting half of local consumption. This combination provides Jordan with significant resilience against external shocks.

Official data from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply show that Jordan has built robust food security buffers. Current wheat reserves exceed 1.1 million tons, sufficient for up to ten and a half months of domestic consumption, supported by extensive storage facilities in Aqaba and the Central Region silos.

However, Dr. Al-Zoubi stressed that the real threat is not the availability of quantities but rising prices, driven by the local market’s connection to global markets. He outlined three potential scenarios: the first, continued rapid escalation raising energy, input, fertilizer, transport, and cooling costs; the second, partial de-escalation providing relative stability and a chance to improve storage plans while risks remain; and the third, a successful diplomatic resolution and sustained truce, which would allow supply chains to resume and prices to stabilize gradually.

Dr. Al-Zoubi highlighted that Europe remains Jordan’s most strategic trading partner, while disruptions in key maritime passages such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait primarily drive higher shipping, insurance, and oil costs. These increases disproportionately impact vulnerable households due to Jordan’s open market, which immediately reflects changes in origin-country prices and global transport costs.

FAO reports indicate that disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have raised maritime insurance costs by 20–30%, exerting inflationary pressure on imported commodities like rice and sugar. This makes smart agriculture and the use of water-saving technologies, which can reduce consumption by up to 90%, a vital necessity for Jordan’s national food security.

Regarding the most affected goods, Dr. Al-Zoubi noted that price increases will broadly impact the market, including imported sugar from Latin America via the Mediterranean due to insurance and transport costs. Rice imported from East and South Asia remains the most directly affected, while wheat imports from Romania remain secure. He emphasized protecting Jordan’s self-sufficient poultry and egg sector by ensuring affordable feed and corn supplies.

He called for a government roadmap to strengthen food security, focusing on incentivizing the private sector to expand storage capacity from three months to six, by addressing high storage costs that burden importers. He also stressed supporting local production through modern agricultural technology to reduce water consumption and address the water scarcity crisis. Transitioning toward sustainable agriculture and advanced technologies, he concluded, is the only way to reduce dependence on volatile global prices and ensure food stability for millions.

Energy: The Biggest Challenge
Economic and political analyst Fahmi Al-Kattout described the ongoing regional conflict, conducted by Israel and the United States against Iran, as an imperialist aggression with serious repercussions extending beyond Iranian borders, affecting the entire region.

Al-Kattout noted that energy has emerged as a core global concern due to the strategic importance of the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz for oil supply. Global oil prices have already spiked sharply, reaching around $100 per barrel, placing a heavy and direct burden on energy-importing economies, including Jordan.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Dr. Saleh Al-Kharabsheh assured that the government is exerting significant efforts to mitigate the impact on citizens, closely monitoring global market fluctuations to ensure continuous energy supply.

Al-Kattout explained that high oil and gas prices directly affect all vital sectors, including electricity generation, transportation, and production industries. He stressed that fuel price volatility disrupts the entire economic and service system.

He highlighted that the government currently imposes taxes of up to 50% on 90-octane gasoline, higher rates on 95-octane gasoline, and additional taxes on diesel and kerosene. However, the state has the authority to partially or fully exempt citizens and economic sectors from these taxes, ensuring global price surges do not impact daily life or cost of living.

Al-Kattout argued that temporarily reducing or eliminating fuel taxes is not a real loss to the treasury but an investment to protect the macroeconomy from entering a deep stagflation spiral. Lowering taxes, even to zero if necessary, would enhance the industrial and tourism sectors’ ability to continue production and services at affordable prices, while safeguarding citizens’ purchasing power. High fuel taxes, he noted, negatively affect growth across all sectors, and the current, possibly short-term phase requires exceptional measures to protect economic stability.

He urged the Petroleum Products Pricing Committee to consider reducing or zeroing tax margins in its upcoming April review to protect the economy from worsening conditions. While acknowledging the potential impact on budget revenues, he stressed that preserving the national economy from collapse or severe downturns takes priority over short-term fiscal considerations, given the exceptional regional circumstances.