The international geopolitical environment in early 2026 is experiencing a state of unprecedented volatility, where deep structural crises within the Islamic Republic of Iran intersect with a radical shift in the political and military doctrine of the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump. Analyzing the probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran at this juncture requires a precise deconstruction of the Iranian internal landscape, which faces its most extensive wave of protests since the 1979 revolution, alongside a deep understanding of the military context following the "12-Day War" in June 2025. Western research centers, such as the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), the Brookings Institution, and the Hudson Institute, have emerged as key actors in shaping scenarios that no longer stop at the principle of containment but increasingly lean toward strategies of coercive path correction or even "regime change" as a viable strategic option.

The current wave of protests began on December 28, 2025, starting in Tehran before rapidly spreading to all 31 Iranian provinces. Unlike previous demonstrations driven by specific civil or political rights, the 2026 uprising is characterized as a "revolution of the hungry" that has converged with radical political ambitions. The Iranian economy has reached a point of total collapse, with the rial plummeting to catastrophic levels, exceeding 1.4 million to 1.5 million rials per U.S. dollar. Macroeconomic indicators in January 2026 show annual inflation reaching between 42.2% and 52%, leading to the erosion of purchasing power for the middle and lower classes and fueling public outrage as food prices surged by 72% and medical goods by 50%.

An analysis by the French newspaper Le Monde suggests that the most prominent feature of these protests is the entry of the "Bazaar" and the merchant class into the confrontation—a sector that has historically been a pillar of stability for any Iranian regime. The closure of shops in Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad was not merely a protest against prices but an expression of lost hope in the regime's ability to manage the state, especially after the Iranian parliament rejected the 2026 budget due to a lack of transparency in oil revenues and a massive gap between wages and inflation. This economic exposure has placed the regime in a dilemma between full diplomatic openness to lift sanctions—which the Supreme Leader rejects—or absolute repression, which could trigger an armed revolution.

The Trump administration is operating in 2026 within a "Doctrine of Decisiveness," where President Trump has set an explicit "red line" regarding the protection of protesters from mass killing, warning Iranian leaders that the United States "will start shooting" if brutal repression continues. White House reports confirm that the President receives hourly intelligence briefings and has tasked the Pentagon with developing options including "heavy" kinetic strikes targeting the regime's vulnerabilities. The administration draws inspiration from the "Venezuela model," which saw significant success in early January 2026 with the capture of Nicolás Maduro, raising expectations in Washington that a similar scenario could be replicated with the Iranian leadership.

Proposed U.S. military and security response options range from precision airstrikes targeting Basij bases, command centers, and energy facilities to dismantle the internal tools of repression, to comprehensive cyberattacks aimed at paralyzing government control networks. 

There is also active consideration for deploying Starlink to provide free satellite internet to protesters to bypass the regime's information blackout, as well as intercepting oil shipments on the high seas to drain the regime's remaining financial resources. 

However, a fundamental question raised by experts at Chatham House is whether these strikes would unify the Iranian elite behind the Supreme Leader under the banner of national sovereignty or if they would serve as the final straw leading to major defections.

Evaluating the probability of a strike in 2026 is impossible without referencing the short and violent military conflict of June 2025, during which the U.S. and Israel launched devastating attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the fortified Fordow plant, using GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. While some enriched uranium stockpiles remained, the damage to infrastructure left the nuclear program reeling, and the weakening of proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah—who faced partial disarmament in late 2025—left Tehran more exposed than ever. According to the Hudson Institute, Iran has lost the "aura of invincibility" it enjoyed for years, encouraging voices in Washington calling for a "knockout blow" that exploits internal divisions.

Regarding the state of the Iranian Armed Forces and potential reactions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been placed on a state of alert exceeding the levels of the 2025 war, amid reports of arrests within its ranks for "abandonment of duty" or refusing to fire on protesters. The regular army (Artesh) is viewed as less ideological, and the political leadership fears its potential defection to the side of the people, especially since it is not trained to suppress civil unrest. Despite these challenges, Iran still retains the capability to launch retaliatory missile strikes against U.S. bases in the region and targets within Israel.

By mid-January 2026, human rights agencies documented the deaths of hundreds of protesters, while opposition estimates and sources from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) suggest the real figure could exceed several thousand due to the use of live ammunition and snipers. The regime's move to a total digital blackout—cutting internet connectivity to approximately 1% since January 8, 2026—is a classic precursor to carrying out large-scale massacres away from international scrutiny.

 Nevertheless, Starlink technology has enabled the leak of horrific footage showing bodies in the streets of cities like Fardis, Sari, and Mashhad, increasing public pressure on the Trump administration for military intervention.

Security forces in Iran are facing a "bandwidth crisis"; the spread of protests across more than 574 locations has made it difficult to redeploy reinforcements, especially with road blocks and widespread sit-ins.

 This security overstretch is seen by some Pentagon planners as a golden opportunity for a military strike aimed at breaking the regime's backbone while it is preoccupied internally. The strategic debate in Washington is split between a camp that views a military strike as an accelerator for the regime's inevitable collapse and another that warns an attack could allow Khamenei to frame himself as a defender of national sovereignty and trigger a regional war that spikes energy prices.

Logistically, reports from USNI News indicate a "deterrence gap" in early January 2026 as U.S. carrier strike groups were withdrawn from the Fifth Fleet's area of responsibility to cover operations in Venezuela and the Indo-Pacific. With the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean, any U.S. strike would rely more heavily on land-based strategic bombers like the B-21 or cruise missiles, which might not be sufficient to completely paralyze the regime and could grant it an opening for retaliatory strikes.

 Future scenarios oscillate between surgical strikes targeting the leaders of the repression, an internal military coup supported secretly by Washington, or limited non-kinetic intervention involving Starlink and cyberwarfare to avoid a new "forever war".

In conclusion, the final assessment indicates that the probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran in 2026 is the highest in decades due to the convergence of Trump's desire for decisiveness with Iran's economic collapse and weakened deterrence following the 2025 losses. The strike remains a major strategic gamble between being an act of liberation or an adventure that could turn Iran into a "larger Syria" and plunge the region into a dark tunnel of chaos.

 According to the Hudson Institute, the Iranian regime is unlikely to emerge from 2026 with its current power intact; it faces either collapse from within, breakage under external strikes, or a forced transformation into a purely military regime.